RBI Grade B Current Affairs — 12 October 2026

The MPC, at its 56th meeting on August 4–6, 2025, chaired by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, held the repo rate at 5.50%, keeping the SDF rate at 5.25% and the MSF rate at 5.75%. The neutral stance was retained. This pause follows a cumulative 100 bps reduction since February 2025. RBI lowered its FY26 CPI inflation forecast to 3.1% from 3.7%, while retaining GDP growth projection at 6.5% for FY26, citing ongoing monetary transmission and US tariff uncertainties.

This MPC decision illustrates a critical monetary policy concept: the transmission lag. When a central bank cuts rates, the effect on credit growth, consumption, and investment does not materialise instantly. Banks must reprice loans, borrowers must respond, and the real economy must absorb cheaper credit — a process that typically takes 2–4 quarters. After cutting by 100 bps across three consecutive meetings (February, April, June 2025), the MPC chose to pause at 5.50% to allow that transmission to work through the system before deciding further action.

The LAF corridor structure matters here. The repo rate (5.50%) is the rate at which banks borrow overnight from the RBI. The SDF (5.25%) is the floor — the rate RBI pays banks to absorb surplus liquidity. The MSF (5.75%) is the ceiling — the emergency borrowing rate. This 50 bps corridor (±25 bps around repo) defines the operating range for overnight money market rates and anchors the entire yield curve.

The inflation nuance is equally important: headline CPI is at a six-year low driven by vegetable price softness (volatile component), but core inflation remains sticky near 4%. The MPC correctly distinguishes between these two — base-effect-driven headline relief does not warrant further easing if underlying price pressures persist. The revised FY26 CPI forecast of 3.1% (below the 4% target midpoint) reflects this vegetable-price-driven disinflation, while the Q4FY26 projection of 4.4% signals expected reversal. This sequencing — cut aggressively, then pause and transmit — is a textbook application of flexible inflation targeting under the RBI Act framework.

On 7 October 2026, the RBI's six-member Monetary Policy Committee unanimously raised the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, the first hike since February 2023. The stance shifted from neutral to calibrated tightening. Retail CPI inflation stood at 4.82% in August 2026, above the 4% medium-term target for a third consecutive month. Despite tightening, RBI upgraded FY27 real GDP growth forecast from 6.7% to 7.1% and raised CPI inflation projection to 5.2%.

The repo rate is the rate at which RBI lends overnight funds to commercial banks against eligible securities. When RBI raises it, banks' borrowing costs rise, which they typically pass on through higher lending rates — slowing credit growth, moderating consumption, and reducing demand-side inflation. This is the core transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

India's Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) framework, operationalised in 2016 under the RBI Act, mandates CPI inflation at 4% with a tolerance band of 2–6%. Failure is defined as inflation remaining outside this band for three consecutive quarters.

The LAF (Liquidity Adjustment Facility) corridor has three key rates: the SDF rate (floor, where banks park surplus funds — 5.25%), the repo rate (policy rate — 5.50%), and the MSF/Bank Rate (ceiling, emergency overnight borrowing — 5.75%). The corridor width is symmetric at ±25 bps around the repo rate.

The stance shift from neutral to calibrated tightening is significant: neutral allows movement in either direction; calibrated tightening signals that rate cuts are off the table in the near term, and the next move is either a hike or a pause. This anchors inflation expectations and gives forward guidance to markets.

The growth-inflation trade-off is the central tension here: tightening controls demand but cannot fix supply-side shocks like poor monsoons or high crude oil prices, which are the primary inflation drivers in this cycle.

The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, chaired by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, is preparing to announce its bi-monthly interest rate decision against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions affecting global supply chains and capital flows. The MPC, a six-member body mandated to keep CPI inflation within a 4% target band, must balance domestic growth support against external price pressures. Markets are closely watching whether the repo rate will be held, cut, or adjusted alongside liquidity corridor settings.

The MPC operates under the inflation-targeting framework established by the RBI Act amendment of 2016, with a mandate to keep CPI inflation at 4% with a tolerance band of ±2% (i.e., 2%–6%). It meets at least four times a year — in practice six bi-monthly meetings — and decisions are by majority vote among six members: three RBI officials (including the Governor, who also holds a casting vote) and three external members appointed by the Government.

The repo rate is the rate at which RBI lends overnight funds to commercial banks against eligible collateral. It anchors the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) corridor: the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate sits 25 bps below repo (floor), and the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate sits 25 bps above repo (ceiling). The policy repo rate thus sets the corridor's midpoint.

Geopolitical tensions matter because they affect imported inflation (oil, commodities), disrupt supply chains, trigger capital outflows from emerging markets, and depreciate the rupee — all of which add to domestic price pressures. A rate cut in such an environment risks stoking inflation even while supporting growth. Conversely, holding or raising rates can dampen credit growth and investment.

For NABARD-linked agricultural credit, the repo rate feeds through NABARD's refinancing rates for short-term cooperative credit, directly affecting the cost of kisan credit and rural lending. Transmission speed and completeness remain key concerns the MPC tracks alongside the rate itself.